Signal Trends — method and coverage

One row per published signal. A signal is excluded from every count when it is an internal tracker row, editorially excluded, a suppressed duplicate of another story, or its link is unusable. The same rule governs the reading feed, so a count and the story list behind it can never differ.

Each signal carries exactly one category and belongs to one of 39 technology frontiers.

2026-01-01 to 2026-11-01, 9,538 signals. The month in progress is always marked partial and is never used to state a direction.

A direction compares the last three complete months against the three before them. It is only stated when the two periods together hold at least 12 signals; below that the panel says so instead of naming a trend. A change under 10% is reported as flat.

A deal value is only counted when the story stated one. Coverage differs sharply by category, so it is printed next to every money figure rather than implied to be complete.

Figures are not excluded by a round threshold. Within each category, every stated value is compared on a log scale against that category's own median and median absolute deviation — both resistant to the outliers being looked for. A value whose modified z-score exceeds 3.5 is flagged as a candidate, as is any figure whose story describes a valuation, market capitalisation or programme ceiling rather than a transaction, or which exceeds the largest already-verified figure in its category by more than tenfold. Categories with fewer than 8 valued stories are compared against the pooled distribution instead, and that is recorded on the figure.

A flagged figure is then checked against its own source: the article is fetched and read, and the figures it actually states are identified and quoted. A figure the article supports stays in every total. Where the article states a different transaction amount — typically because a valuation was recorded as the deal size — the corrected amount is used and the original stays visible beside it. Where the article states no such amount, the figure is excluded from money totals and listed with the quote behind that decision.

When the source cannot be read — a paywall, a blocked request, a page that needs a browser — the figure is not excluded on that basis. Other free records are looked for, in this order, and the first one that states the figure in plain words decides it:

1. 1. The original link again, plus its printable and mobile copies.
2. 2. The company's own announcement on its own site or newsroom.
3. 3. The public filing record, where the company files.
4. 4. The free newswire copy of the same release.
5. 5. Two independent publishers stating the same figure. This is weaker than a primary document, so it is labelled as press-corroborated, never as source-confirmed.

Every confirmation carries a quoted sentence or headline and a link to the document it came from, and how it was established is shown beside the figure. Figures still unresolved after three rounds stop being retried and wait for a decision by hand; they stay out of totals and are shown as awaiting a check, never presented as either right or wrong. A figure checked by hand is marked as such and that decision stands.

Currently 24 figures confirmed, 2 corrected, 8 excluded, and 0 awaiting a check. Established by: the original article (5), a document checked by hand (5), two independent reports (2). None of this changes a signal count, a category count or a frontier count — only the money sums.

• IPOs & Going PublicS-1 filings, direct listings, de-SPAC, first-day pops, lockup expiries.
• M&A & DealsDefinitive acquisitions, takeovers, divestitures, buyouts, asset sales, structural merger closes.
• Partnerships & AlliancesJVs, supply agreements (e.g. compute / spectrum / hardware), integrations, co-development, channel deals.
• Funding & Capital RaisesVenture rounds, private debt, secondaries (private), grants, government co-investment structured as a round.
• Government & PolicyGovernment is a PARTY: agency contract awards, export controls, sanctions, legislation, executive orders, rulemaking.
• Product LaunchesNew product unveilings, GA releases, major version launches, hardware reveals, facility openings that ship a product.
• Breakthroughs & MilestonesScientific results, clinical readouts, R&D firsts, technical world-firsts (e.g. net-positive fusion, first orbital catch).
• Regulatory & ApprovalsFDA, FAA, NRC, EU AI Act, EPA, SEC enforcement, Nasdaq compliance — approvals, denials, sanctions, recalls, deadlines.
• Earnings & PerformanceQuarterly/annual results, guidance changes, KPI disclosures, pre-announcements (SEC 8-K item 2.02).
• Risk & DisruptionChapter 11, going-concern, fatal incidents, disclosed-scope security breach, layoffs ≥5%, short-seller report, federal investigation, major outage.
• Corporate & OwnershipBoardroom and balance sheet: board and proxy outcomes, entity or segment changes, executive appointments and departures, dividends, buybacks, treasury purchases, credit facilities, committed capex, and 5%+ beneficial-owner or activist stakes.
• Recognition & VoiceAwards, index and list placements, analyst leader positions, substantial third-party profiles, executive essays and keynotes, and community or CSR activity.

Counts update as signals are published, so the charts move daily. The written quarterly read-out is generated once per quarter from the aggregate figures alone and carries the date it was written; it never rewrites or reinterprets individual headlines.

Quote the figure with the window it covers and the retrieval date:

FuturRupt Signal Trends, data through 2026-11-01 (retrieved 2026-11-14), futurrupt.x-barriers.com/spec/trends

The interactive charts, per-frontier splits and story-level drill-down are part of a paid Pro plan; this page and its coverage figures are open to anyone checking a quoted number.